Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming and Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska are set Tuesday to test their mettle against the Trump-fueled primary buzzsaw that has ripped through the GOP this election cycle, separating Trump foes from their political careers.
Ms. Cheney and Ms. Murkowski both have been vocal critics of former President Donald Trump, but they appear to be on very different electoral paths against their Trump-backed rivals. Ms. Cheney is staring at near certain defeat in the winner-take-all primary in deep-red Wyoming, and Ms. Murkowski is well-positioned to fight another day in Alaska’s ranked-choice primary.
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, meanwhile, is looking to ride the pro-Trump wave back into electoral politics in a special election race in Alaska to replace the state’s late Rep. Don Young.
The primary races Tuesday, in other words, are shaping up as the latest barometer of Mr. Trump’s political clout.
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As it stands, seven of the ten House Republicans that voted to impeach Mr. Trump for inciting the Jan. 6 attack mayhem will not be returning to Congress.
“Overall, in terms of Trump’s endorsement, he has done pretty well this year,” said Miles Coleman, of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “He has had some setbacks in places like Georgia, but it has been largely positive for him.”
Mr. Trump is looking to notch more wins in Alaska where Ms. Palin is locked in a competitive special House election with Nick Begich III. Democrat Mary Peltola is also running in the race, and hoping to shake things up.
Ms. Palin endorsed Mr. Trump early on in the 2016 GOP presidential race, and Mr. Trump returned the favor this year, saying she has been a warrior against corruption in state government and the “Fake News Media.”
Ms. Palin resigned as governor in 2009 after she electrified the base of the Republican Party — and horrified Democrats — as Sen. John McCain’s feisty and folksy running mate a year earlier.
Republicans are expected to defend the House seat in November when Ms. Palin, Mr. Begich and Ms. Peltola are likely to face off again — along with a fourth candidate — for the chance to serve a full two-year term.
Ms. Murkowski also is under the spotlight in Alaska.
Of the seven Senate Republicans that voted to convict Mr. Trump after his House impeachment trial for inciting insurrection with the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack, she is the only one to face voters this year.
Mr. Trump is backing Republican Kelly Tshibaka in the 19-candidate primary battle.
Ms. Murkowski, who lost her primary in 2010 before winning as a write-in candidate, stands to benefit from the state’s new ranked-choice primary system where the top four vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.
Indeed, the two pro-impeachment House Republicans — Reps. David Valadao of California and Dan Newhouse of Washington — who survived their primaries come from states with somewhat similar open primary systems.
Ms. Cheney doesn’t have that luxury in her winner-take-all primary in Wyoming where her critics say her anti-Trump actions have rendered her ineffective.
Her future has been in limbo since she joined 9 of her House GOP colleagues in voting to impeach Mr. Trump for inciting the Capitol riot to block Congress’ certification of President Biden’s victory.
Combined with her refusal to back off her criticism of Mr. Trump and his stolen election claims, her impeachment vote has not aged well.
Ms. Cheney’s decision to serve as vice chair of the House Jan. 6 select committee investigating the Jan. 6 riot further alienated her from the GOP base.
Ms. Cheney, nonetheless, welcomed the fight against Mr. Trump and his hand-picked candidate Harriet Hageman, saying “bring it on.” She said that it is time to “elect serious leaders” and Mr. Trump’s “poisonous lies” threaten to destroy the nation.
But Ms. Cheney is heading into big trouble on Tuesday.
“I think Wyoming is going to be a pretty open and shut case,” Mr. Coleman said. “It is admiral that she is willing to stand on principle, but electorally that is just not the message a Republican electorate is going to want to hear — being anti-Trump.”
Things have looked so dire for Ms. Cheney that speculation has been running rampant for weeks, even months, over whether she might run for president in 2024, lead some sort of anti-Trump group, or join the ranks of the television talking heads.
The University of Wyoming’s Wyoming Survey and Analysis Center released a new poll of likely GOP primary voters last week showing Ms. Hageman, a former Cheney supporter and member of the Republican National Committee, is leading by 30 percentage points.
“Wyoming is fed up with Liz Cheney because she‘s made the election about her and her own personal war with President Trump,” said Tim Murtaugh, a Hageman advisor. “Wyoming wants someone who will fight against the awful Biden administration, not do the Democrats’ dirty work, and that’s why Harriet Hageman will be the next congresswoman from Wyoming.”
“Like many candidates across this country, my opponents in Wyoming have said that the 2020 election was rigged and stolen,” she said in her closing campaign ad. “No one who understands our nation’s laws, no one with an honest, honorable, genuine commitment to our Constitution would say that. It is a cancer that threatens our great Republic.”
“If we do not condemn these lies, if we do not hold those responsible to account, we will be excusing this conduct and it will become a feature of all elections,” she said. “America will never be the same.”