Ten more blue House seats move in Republicans’ favor: election forecaster

Ten additional House races in states all carried by President Biden received ratings changes in favor of Republicans on Tuesday by the nonpartisan election forecaster Cook Political Report.

The changes come just a week before Election Day and are yet another sign that Republicans are likely to take control of the House as Democrats face several headwinds, including Mr. Biden’s low approval numbers and concerns from voters about the economy.

All 10 of the shifting seats are in deep blue states and in districts carried by Mr. Biden between eight and 20 percentage points.

Oregon’s 5th Congressional District, currently held by moderate Kurt Schrader, who lost his primary, went from “toss-up” to “lean Republican.”

Three districts went from “lean Democratic” to “toss-up,” including New York’s 3rd and 4th districts held by retiring Democrats, and California’s 47th held by Rep. Katie Porter.  

Four races went from “likely Democratic” to “lean Democratic,” including California’s 9th held by Rep. Josh Harder, Illinois’ 6th held by Rep. Sean Casten, Illinois’ 4th held by Rep. Lauren Underwood and New Jersey’s 4th held by Rep. Andy Kim.

SEE ALSO: Democrats circle wagons to boost Hochul in final week of campaign

California’s 26th held by Rep. Julia Brownley went from “solid Democratic” to “lean Democratic” and New York’s 25th held by Rep. Joe Morelle shifted from “solid Democratic” to “likely Democratic.”

“If you’re looking for House upsets, the best places to watch might be blue states where there’s no competitive statewide races driving turnout, Democratic governors are underperforming and GOP candidates have been able to seize on high crime and inflation,” Cook Political’s David Wasserman wrote of their ratings changes.

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